Future air quality change under the RCP scenarios
Ozone and Particulate matter are important constituent of the atmosphere responsible for negative health impacts. Atmospheric concentrations of air pollutions will change in the future as climate and pollution precursor emissions change. Rapid global change, including changes in both climate and anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors, is expected in the coming decades. However, quantitative estimation of future air pollution concentrations is very challenging because of a couple of confounding factors. First, future anthropogenic emissions of air pollution precursors are very uncertain. Another factor is change in air pollution meteorology, which directly affects the formation, transport, and loss of air pollution and also modifies air pollution precursor emissions from natural sources. We examine future air quality change using the RCP scenarios and attempt to reduce the associated uncertainty of future air quality projection. We use a global chemical transport model, driven by meteorological fields from the GCM, to investigate the effects of future change on air quality.
Simulated 2000e2050 changes in annual mean surface ozone changes for RCP2.6 (upper left), RCP4.5 (upper right), RCP6.0 (lower left), and RCP8.5 (lower right) scenarios.